Now that the dust has settled from losing to the Dodgers in the 2024 World Series, the Yankees task at hand is to assess what went wrong and how they can improve to make a legitimate run in 2025.
Including the 2017 season, the Yankees have been to the playoffs eight times in that span. They’ve lost to the Astros four times (2017, 2019 and a four game sweep in 2022 in the ALCS, if you include the AL Wild Card game in 2015), lost twice in the ALDS (2018 to the Red Sox, 2020 to the Tampa Bay Rays) a loss to the Red Sox in the 2021 Wild Card game, along with this just completed World Series.
The Dodgers took the Yankees to school and may have done them a favor by exposing and taking advantage of the flaws that have held them back since they began the “Post Core Four era” in 2017.
Baserunning:
You didn’t need any metric formulas to realize the Yankees were an awful baserunning team. This was something that was prominent during the regular season.
There was the time Anthony Volpe did not score from third because he was watching D.J. LeMahieu get thrown out at second on a timing play.
When Gleyber Torres was thrown out at home in the first inning of game 5 of the ALCS vs. Cleveland, he did not properly cut the bag at third base and ran so wide a route that he nearly ended up in the Guardians dugout before being cut down at the plate.
The irony of these baserunning blunders is that the Yankees rarely run while they employ a station to station type offense.
In his column from last Friday, NY Post columnist and MLB Network’s Joel Sherman wrote, “They [the Dodgers] were thrilled at how short Yankee leads were at first base to potentially be less of a threat on pivots [to turn DPs] at second.” Even Freddie Freeman, who was playing on a bum ankle, went first to third at one point during the Series.
The stats support another flaw with the Yankees’ baserunning acumen.
They were tied with the Astros for the worst in baseball in extra base taken percentage (percentage of times the runner advanced more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) at 36%. The Dodgers were tied with the Detroit Tigers for the best at 49%.
Speed is not the only factor that enables teams to take an extra base. An ability to “read” a developing play is not something that the Yankees baserunners seem to excel at.
Consider the phrase from Sherman’s column, “short Yankee leads” at first base. That means the Yankees are not “scaring” opposing pitchers into making mistakes. The opposing pitchers rarely threw over to first base because they were comfortable in the fact that the Yankees rarely tried to steal second.
The Yankees have failed to take advantage of the new stolen base rules that have now been in effect for the past two seasons.
Speaking of “short leads,” how about Volpe’s attempt to distract the pitcher when he would be on first base. While the pitcher was in the stretch and standing on the rubber, Volpe would literally take a few dance steps to his right, making himself more vulnerable to a pick off. It was surprising that he was not picked off more often, but why is he even being allowed to make a move like that.
Another aspect of baserunning concerns GIDP (grounding into double plays).
The Yankees led the Major Leagues in GIDP (138) and they’ve been one of the leaders in that wretched statistic over the past few seasons. LA only had 99 GIDP, which meant when they got runners on base, they didn’t “kill” as many potential rallies as the Yankees did.
When a team doesn’t start runners, they’re more susceptible to double plays. The Yankees fall right into that category.
Defense:
Sherman had some items in his column that pointed out some of those defensive flaws. Sherman wrote, “What the Dodgers told their players in scouting meetings was the Yankees were talent over fundamentals. That if you run the bases with purpose and aggression, the Yankees will self-inflict harm.”
There’s more. “They [the Dodgers] said their metrics had the Yankees as the worst positioned outfield. They were amazed how many times relay throws came skittering through the infield with no one taking charge and how often Jazz Chisholm Jr, for example, was out of place or just standing still when a play was in action.” (In regard to being “out of place,” Chisholm Jr was an inexperienced third baseman so he gets a bit of a pass and deserves credit for even taking the position. Remember, Torres balked when approched with the idea of becoming a third baseman)
Bottom line, the Yankees have to improve defensively.
Outfield Positioning:
From Sherman: “They [the Dodgers] said their metrics had the Yankees as the worst positioned outfield.”
This positioning was bad, in part because the pitchers were not on the same page with where the outfielders were playing.
For example: On Freddie Freeman’s at bats in the World Series, Juan Soto was way over in right center field, yet the Yankees kept pitching him inside.
If you go watched the games during the regular season, the Yankees tended to play their corner outfielders in the gaps and that left a lot of room down the lines. How many times did you see a ball go into the corner and it seemed like an eternity before the outfielder got there to prevent an extra base or two.
Batting Order:
All season, the Yankees were trying to fill two key components of their batting order, a prototypical lead off hitter and the #4 hole.
Torres began the season as the lead off hitter, but he struggled and was eventually bumped to lower in the order. Volpe, who fit the profile of a prototypical lead off hitter because of his speed, eventually took over that spot but he also struggled, leaving the Yankees to come up with something else.
The Yankees need a presence at lead off. Someone who can get on base and scare an opposing pitcher into making a mistake. Torres returned to the lead off spot in the post season and hit well, but he never ran. He never distracted the pitcher into making a mistake.
Some felt that if the lead off man steals second, the opponent would walk Juan Soto to pitch to a struggling Aaron Judge. That was the case in the post season, but if Judge is hitting, teams will not intentionally walk Soto to pitch to the Yankees centerfielder. Again, if the pitcher is distracted by the potential of a stolen base, maybe they don’t throw so many breaking balls to Judge.
The analytical people say the order does not matter, but the first inning is the only inning that a manager (or whoever is making the lineup) can determine who the first three hitters are. Every other inning is determined by chance. Additionally, the lead off batter is still hitting ahead of the two and three hitters so that spot is criucial to the success of an offense.
Chisholm Jr stole 40 bases in 50 attempts combined for Miami and the Yankees last season. He does not belong batting fourth or fifth and is the likely candidate to lead off next season.
Producing with Men on Base and RISP:
Not to be repetitive, but part of the problem was with the batting order (see above).
They Yankees were third in the Major Leagues in leaving men on base (1141), only the Cardinals (1149) and the Dodgers (1143) were worse. There were so many games where the LOB number was double digits.
The Dodgers’ LOB total is a result of having a lot of men on base, but they had 71 more hits than the Yankees and did not kill rallies with GIDPs while they cashed in on many more of those opportunities.
In the regular season, the Yankees had 70 (672) more walks than the Dodgers (602), yet they scored 27 less runs (842-815). It seems like a small number, but it was a factor that translated to the World Series. In the Fall Classic, the Yankees had a 27-19 advantage in walks and only scored one less run but the Dodgers still won four of the five games.
There were also too many instances of the Yankees failing to plate a runner from third with less than two out.
Infield:
Now that Anthony Rizzo is gone, there is a hole at first base and I don’t think the Yankees have that player to fill that need on their roster right now. Ben Rice is not the answer and neither is LeMahieu or Oswaldo Cabrera on a full time basis.
As far as free agents go, the most attractive first basemen are Pete Alonso and Christian Walker (both of whom received qualifying offers). Alonso is 30 years old and Walker is 34. Both are right handed hitters but Walker is the better defensive player.
At some point, the Yankees are going to have to transition Aaron Judge to first base and that has to start soon.
Torres was not tendered (his public declaration of an unwillingness to move to third base was probably a factor in this decision) so Chisholm Jr will be moving to second base, leaving a need at third base. The Yankees would be making a mistake if they think LeMahieu can be their everyday third baseman.
Volpe is entrenched at shortstop but he has to show some progress offensively because he regressed this past season. There was too much inconsistency with his at bats. At times, he looked lost at the plate and he doesn’t maximize his talents (see: speed).
Pitching:
Retaining Gerrit Cole is a big first step. Carlos Rodon had a better season in 2024 but he needs to keep the ball in the park, while the overrated bullpen will need an overhaul.
Luke Walker did a nice job as the closer but can he be a reliable option next season? Closers are a dime a dozen. How many ups and downs do relievers have from year to year. The pen will need to be enhanced in one way or another.
The Yankees won the American League pennant but the World Series loss exposed the flaws that have been plaguing them for some time now.
The Yankees need to put much more of an emphasis on defense and fundamentals. That begins this off season with whoever they bring and continues with coaching and instruction when they open spring training in February.
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