This is a bet so obvious and so easy that even that gambling fool, Ippei Mizuhara, would probably win: His old buddy Shohei Ohtani is very likely going to win the National League MVP award.
And Francisco Lindor, the Mets’ do-everything, all-everything, two-way superstar, is very likely to finish second in what’s turned into a two-star race. (I purposely added the trio of superlatives there to counter Ohtani’s unfair advantage — yes, bias — in that Ohtani is not a Met. More on that later.)
Ohtani will likely win because he’s on his way to becoming a 50-50 (50 homers, 50 steals) man. He’s already the first 45-45 man. Sure, Ohtani’s doing something no one’s ever done, and if he wins as full-time DH, he’ll be the first to do that, too. Of course, it’s amazing. It’s even historic. But is it more valuable?
Everything considered, it’s very close — or at least it should be.
Lindor is hitting homers and stealing bases, too, he’s playing great defense, he’s providing rare leadership and he’s ensuring the positive vibe around a Mets team that’s climbed 24 games to the good from 11 under and into a tie for playoff position. “M-V-P!” chants rang out at lively Citi Field Sunday. (Like voters, they also have biases.)
The two outlets that compute WAR are numerically split between who’s best — to the very decimal point. Baseball Reference says it’s Ohtani with a 7.1 WAR mark heading into Sunday. Fangraphs says Lindor at a 7.3 mark. And there’s no settling that tie, as the lead is exactly 0.7 in each case.
This should be a toss-up.
Almost surely, it won’t be.
Ohtani will very likely win because, in the one year he had to pause from pitching, he turned himself into that rare versatile DH, adding significant steals to his ridiculous power game. Ohtani will likely win because he’s a headline-winning (but media-repellent) international superstar whose $700 million contract doubles Lindor’s bargain of a $341 million deal.
And, frankly, Ohtani will likely win because the East Coast Bias is a figment of someone’s jealous imagination. Yes, totally fake news.
East Coast bias is so weak that, if anything, it’s turned around — yes, there just might be a West Coast Bias — just check the history.
Since the Mets came to be, six Los Angeles Dodgers won MVP, seven Los Angeles of Anaheim/California Angels, seven Oakland A’s and 10 San Francisco Giants. Counting Padres (one) and Mariners (two), that’s 33 West Coast players.
Amazingly, even ridiculously, not one of 63 NL MVPs since the Mets started playing was a Met. (In 1979, there was a tie and the award went to both Pittsburgh’s Willie Stargell and St. Louis’ Keith Hernandez — how about that, the legendary Met Hernandez won when he wasn’t a Met!)
When Carlos Beltran had a WAR of 8.2, he is recalled mostly for watching one strike go by in that 2006 year. He finished fourth. Meantime, Ryan Howard, with a 5.2 WAR, won the MVP.
A year later, David Wright posted an 8.3 WAR. But those Mets are remembered more for blowing a seven-game lead with 17 games to go. The MVP went to Jimmy Rollins, who predicted the Phillies title (and Mets demise) but had a 6.1 WAR.
It’s not that Mets don’t poll well. In some cases they are plain ignored. Bernard Gilkey posted an 8.1 WAR to MVP Ken Caminiti’s 7.6 in 1996, yet finished 14th. John Olerud in 1998 had a 7.6 WAR, yet wound up 12th. Beltran in 2008 had a 7.0 figure and came in 21st.
Tom Seaver led in WAR in 1971 (10.2), 1973 (10.6) and 1975 (7.8) yet finished ninth, eighth and ninth for MVP. In 1969, it wasn’t a stretch that Willie McCovey won. But Seaver is the true symbol of that miracle season. He did finish second, highest of any Met ever.
“We’re always the ugly stepsister here, so you really have to do something special in order to be recognized here,” Brandon Nimmo said about the unhappy voting history. (Nimmo incidentally said Lindor “would have my vote,” but unlike actual voters, he acknowledged his own bias.)
Lindor isn’t concerning himself with any of this. He only heard recently that no Met has ever won (and he never heard of East Coast bias — good for him there!). He just keeps helping the Mets win games. He’s reason No. 1 the 2024 Mets transformed from transitioning to thrilling. Thanks to him, the Mets are playing meaningful games in September, and winning them — although their 3-1 defeat Sunday to the Reds halted their nine-game winning streak.
Lindor’s single-season team record for consecutive games getting on base also expired, at 35. But he’s also doing history. He’s now the third shortstop to hit 30 home runs five times, joining multiple MVPs Ernie Banks and Alex Rodriguez.
And with four more steals, Lindor becomes the first shortstop ever to post two 30-30 seasons (though Bobby Witt Jr., coincidentally running second for AL MVP, is two away).
As for the MVP, Lindor told me, “I’ll leave that to you guys.”
Unfortunately, that’s the problem. It is up to us guys.
