4. Best actor
Once up on a time, way back in December, this seemed to be Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar to lose, and now it seems like he really will lose it. Michael B Jordan has come on strong lately for good reason: he is dynamic in Sinners and the soul of the film. And he has a degree-of-difficulty advantage, playing identical twins. It doesn’t take anything away from his sharp performance to note a reality of Oscar voting: that kind of conspicuous acting is just the kind of thing they go for. Chalamet gives one of his fullest performances in Marty Supreme, and still has a chance, but he lost the Bafta to Robert Aramayo and most significantly lost the Actor (formerly SAG) award to Jordan. And in recent months, Marty Supreme’s awards fortunes have kept shrinking while Sinners kept gaining ground. I’m guessing Jordan will win, but if I were voting I’d give it to Wagner Moura for his profound, natural performance in The Secret Agent. In fact, this category might have the year’s single strongest group of nominees, and a five-way tie that included Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke would be fine too. (CJ)
5. Best supporting actor
I love Sean Penn’s performance in One Battle After Another. Using everything from his clenched strut to his bleached-blond haircut to a battery of twitches and grimaces, Penn shapeshifts into a larger-than-life grotesque, the malevolent yet hapless Col Lockjaw. Penn has nabbed a Bafta and an Actor award so far, but he’s up against Stellan Skarsgård, who is formidable as a different kind of villain, an egotistical film director, in Sentimental Value. The big difference between the two is that Penn already has two Oscars, for Mystic River and Milk, while the 74-year-old Skarsgård doesn’t have any. Quite apart from delivering one of his deepest characterisations, he could win simply because the US film industry is so fond of him – and, for that matter, of his sons Alexander and Bill. (NB)
Warner Bros6. Best supporting actress
This has been one of the toughest categories to predict all season, and it still is. First Amy Madigan was the front-runner for Weapons, then Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another, and now Madigan might be ahead again after winning the Actor award – really, who knows? Madigan has a long, respected career behind her, which works in her favour, and Taylor exploded off the screen with the kind of presence that creates movie stars. It’s a classic veteran v newcomer race, which could go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Taylor based on the huge momentum of One Battle After Another. Of course, Sinners has momentum too, and Wunmi Mosaku won the Bafta, so she could pull a surprise upset. And Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas gives such a magnificent, although quieter performance in Sentimental Value that I’d say she should win. But let’s be realistic about this two-way race. Oscar voting has already ended, so for Madigan and Taylor it’s all over except for the nail-biting. (CJ)
7. Best original screenplay
With a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, Sinners is sure to win in several categories. The most likely of these is best original screenplay. In fact, considering that Sinners was the highest grossing film in the world in 2025 that wasn’t based on existing IP, you could argue that Ryan Coogler’s script qualifies as the year’s most successful original screenplay already. And let’s not forget that Coogler is also the writer-director of the hugely profitable Black Panther and Creed, so the Academy probably should have given him an Oscar years ago. But even if you ignore his films’ box-office takings, his Sinners screenplay stands as a major achievement. Coogler has written an edge-of-your-seat horror film, but it’s also a nifty period gangster thriller, and a raucous musical that presents African American music as a magical force that can bend time and space. It would be appropriate if the Oscar for best original screenplay went to a screenplay that’s so original. (NB)
8. Best adapted screenplay
Bugonia? Frankenstein? Train Dreams? For all these films’ merits, none of them has had people raving about their scripts, so that leaves Hamnet and One Battle After Another as the only real contenders for the best adapted screenplay Oscar. For me, Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell’s Hamnet script is simplistic and superficial compared to O’Farrell’s novel, whacking us over the head with themes which float mistily up from its pages, whereas Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Vineland by Thomas Pynchon is something else. Indeed, it’s more accurate to say that One Battle After Another was inspired by the book rather than adapted from it. Over many years, Anderson has taken bits and pieces from Pynchon, but he has reassembled them in a cinematic new shape, revving the story up to breakneck speed, investing it with his own feelings about parenthood, tossing in bursts of dark comedy, and bringing in so much ripped-from-the-headlines contemporary material that you’d never guess that the novel was published in 1990. The screenplay has already won a Bafta and a Golden Globe. It would be a shock if it didn’t win an Oscar, too. (NB)
Netflix9. Best animated feature
The producers of the Oscar show are always trying to highlight the year’s most popular films, often a futile struggle, but they’ll get their wish with KPop Demon Hunters, which is sure to win. And why not? The idea of a girl group fighting monsters and saving the world is inspired. The film is fun, colourful and cheerful. It has a strong be-true-to-yourself message, catchy songs (Golden is certain to win best original song) and is a huge global hit. It has won almost every award in this category leading up to the Oscars, and the only reason it didn’t win a Bafta is because it wasn’t released in UK cinemas and wasn’t eligible. Zootopia 2 did win that one, and it’s also a major box office success, but feisty cartoon animals are no match for the originality of singing demon hunters. (CJ)
TIFF10. Best international film
All five nominees are among the year’s strongest films regardless of country. And in a sure sign that film is global, the category’s two frontrunners – The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value – are also, deservingly, up for best picture. The Secret Agent, a timely, exhilarating political thriller about Brazil under a dictatorship, should win. Blending personal and political stories, it is built around a charismatic performance from Wagner Moura. And although Kleber Mendonça Filho missed out on a best director nod, he was in the conversation earlier on. Coming just a year after Brazil’s first ever win, for I’m Still Here, another Oscar for the country seems exciting. But I think the award is a bit more likely to go to Norway’s Sentimental Value, which has nine nominations, including three in acting as well as directing and original screenplay for Joachim Trier. Even more important than that show of strength, this eloquent, emotional family drama makes it easy to sink into its world. That might give it just enough of an edge over the more challenging Secret Agent. (CJ)
The 98th Academy Awards take place on Sunday 15 March.
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