For fans in New York, “patience” isn’t part of the vocabulary. As the 2026 MLB season looms, the back pages are already buzzing and the oddsmakers are paying close attention.
According to the oddsmakers at BetOnline, the spotlight is squarely on the Bronx, where Yankees skipper Aaron Boone has opened as the betting favorite to be the first MLB manager to be fired this season.
For a city that expects a parade every October, the numbers are brutal.
The Yankees haven’t hoisted a World Series trophy since 2009, and Boone is entering Year 9 without a ring, officially putting him in the crosshairs of the city’s legendary “championship or bust” mentality.
The Bronx Pressure Cooker: Why Boone?
Boone (+550) kicks off the first year of his new two-year extension (through 2027), but in Steinbrenner-era New York, a contract is often just a formality. Even after a 94-win season in 2025 and a 2024 World Series appearance, the scrutiny has never been more intense.
With Aaron Judge turning 34 and a rotation featuring electric but volatile arms like Max Fried and Cam Schlittler, the Yankees can’t afford a slow start. Fall behind the Orioles or Red Sox by even a half-dozen games in May, and “getting Boone’d” could become the city’s newest verb.
Queens Pressure: Is Mendoza Safe?
Over at Citi Field, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza (+1500) is on a short leash. David Stearns has publicly backed him after New York missed the 2025 postseason, but Mendoza is in the final guaranteed year of his contract.
Consistency will be key for the Mets, who have aggressively upgraded the roster, adding Freddy Peralta and Bo Bichette to stabilize a team that collapsed late last summer. Mendoza’s +1500 odds indicate a bit more leeway than Boone, but with Steve Cohen’s checkbook open and a revamped coaching staff, every loss at Citi Field could feel like a personal audition for next year.
First MLB Manager Fired Odds
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| Manager | Team | Odds |
| Aaron Boone | Yankees | 550 |
| A.J. Hinch | Tigers | 850 |
| John Schneider | Blue Jays | 950 |
| Joe Espada | Astros | 1000 |
| Alex Cora | Red Sox | 1200 |
| Matt Quatraro | Royals | 1200 |
| Carlos Mendoza | Mets | 1500 |
| Rob Thomson | Phillies | 1500 |
| Mark Kotsay | Athletics | 1800 |
| Oliver Marmol | Cardinals | 2000 |
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Other Managers On The Hot Seat
- A.J. Hinch (+850): Detroit blew a huge division lead late in 2025. If the Tigers stumble early, even a “proactive” extension won’t protect him.
- John Schneider (+950): Toronto faces spring training injuries to stars like Anthony Santander. If the Jays falter while waiting for the IL to clear, Schneider could be the fall guy.
- Alex Cora (+1200): Boston is a mirror of New York—extended deal or not, failure to compete in the AL East is a fireable offense.
Bottom Line
Once again, New York claims the top spot in the hot seat rankings. For Boone, Mendoza, and anyone else in the big city grind, the regular season is a sprint: fall behind, and you’re packing before the calendar flips to June.
