Tug Hill receives the greatest average snowfall totals in New York State. In Harold Samson’s book Tug Hill Country; Tales from the Big Woods (1971) he wrote “Tug Hill is, and always has been, noted for its winter snows… In winter, the Tug Hill plateau becomes a vast wilderness of white; favorite playground of snowmobilers and other winter sports enthusiasts.”
An economic study in 2021 estimated that 34,254 unique snowmobile users ride Tug Hill’s trails each year, bringing in nearly $81.6 million in sales from snowmobile activity. A new study by the Tug Hill Commission hopes to better understand how our warming climate will affect the region and its winter sports industry in the years to come.
The Tug Hill Plateau, located west of Adirondack Park, rises approximately 2,100 feet (640 meters) above Lake Ontario’s eastern shore. The region is one of the most rural and remote areas of New York State and the Northeast, covering 2,100 square miles, or 1.2 million acres. Nearly 104,000 residents live in 41 towns and 18 villages throughout portions of Jefferson, Lewis, Oneida, and Oswego counties.
The Tug Hill region is historically known for its heavy snowfall patterns and prime winter conditions for outdoor recreation. Redfield resident Carol Yerdon has recorded snowfall data for almost 30 years. One of her highest snowfall records is from the winter season of 1996-1997 where she recorded 424.25 inches of snow.
More recently, though, communities in the Tug Hill region have experienced a wide array of changing winter conditions. Winter events are often postponed or canceled, and winter recreation has been unreliable at times because of snowfall uncertainty.
The Tug Hill Commission’s study analyzed data from four stations in the Tug Hill region: Bennetts Bridge (in Orwell), Boonville, Highmarket, and Lowville, to understand air temperature and snowfall trends in winter seasons.
Bennetts Bridge is in Oswego County, Lowville and Highmarket are in Lewis County, and Boonville is in Oneida County. No comprehensive dataset with an adequate time-frame was available for Jefferson County.
Over the past 50 years, all four stations have shown increasing minimum and maximum temperatures, indicating a warming trend. Additionally, two stations (Bennetts
Bridge and Boonville) have a decreasing trend, or reduction, in snowfall, and two (Highmarket and Lowville) have little to no change.
This is still symptomatic of a changing climate. Warming air temperatures are causing more variability in snowfall, making it a challenge to plan ahead for winter seasons.
The Tug Hill region is highly influenced by lake-effect snowfall, and increasing air temperatures can affect this. Lake-effect snow is fueled by open water. As air temperatures rise, lakes also warm, reducing how long a lake is frozen over.
Since lake-effect snow is highly influenced by open water, a warmer lake with little to no ice for a longer time increases the potential for more lake-effect snow events.
The State of the Great Lakes report keeps track of Lake Ontario’s surface water temperature and ice cover data and shows a warming trend and decrease in ice cover
over nearly 50 years.
Lars Rudstam and James Jackson from the Cornell Biological Field Station have ice cover data for Oneida and Cazenovia lakes from 1826 to the present day, showing an increasing rate of lake ice loss.
The flip side is that warmer air temperatures cause warmer winters, and while lake-effect snowfall may occur, it may also be too warm for it to snow, again making planning challenging.
Since 1901, according to the NYS Climate Impacts Assessment, the average temperature in New York State has increased by almost 2.6°F, and the warmest 10-year period has been since 2000.
The assessment further details projected temperature increases for the future as well, including the Tug Hill region, to increase by 4.6 to 6.7° F by the 2050s and 6.1 to 10.9°F by the 2080s.
Warming air temperatures can impact winter weather, affecting freeze-thaw cycles for agriculture, road and trail maintenance, and winter recreation.
Understanding Warming Impacts
The NYS Climate Impacts Assessment explores current and future climate change impacts on communities, ecosystems, and the economy in New York State. Over 250 New York-based, national, and Indigenous climate science experts and representatives from communities and industries across the state contributed to the assessment.
It provides an in-depth analysis of how a changing climate impacts the state, including agriculture, buildings, ecosystems, energy, human health and safety, society and economy, transportation, and water resources.
Looking ahead, warmer winters and variability in snowfall mean Tug Hill residents may need to consider different approaches to winter recreation and trail and road maintenance. Warmer winters will lead to less ice on lakes, which can decrease the amount of ice fishing.
As mentioned, it can impact snowfall and, therefore, snowmobiling, skiing, snowshoeing, and other winter recreation activities and events. It could also impact the Tug Hill Aquifer because snowmelt helps to recharge it. Diversifying winter recreation may also need to be considered. The impacts on winter recreation can also influence the local economy.
Planning for more variability and extremes in winter will be increasingly important. More extreme snowfall events could lead to increased road salt and plow usage and impacts on homes and businesses, including building collapses.
Warmer winters can lead to more freezing and thawing events, impacting trails and roads, and ice can lead to more injuries and accidents, resulting in more emergency services being needed.
Future research on winter seasons could include analyses of snowpack and the number of days above and below freezing. Additionally, studying spring and summer temperatures and rainfall patterns – including intensity, frequency, and dry periods – would help assess climate trends in the Tug Hill region.
Developing a model to better understand past changes in climate and forecast future conditions would also help understand how lake-effect snow is affected by climate change and support future planning efforts.
Tug Hill communities may need to prepare for greater variability and extremes in winter conditions. This could mean incorporating proactive measures into comprehensive plans or adjusting winter recreational events to account for changing snowfall patterns.
While the causes of these shifts are complex, understanding them is essential for planning the Tug Hill region’s future.
This essay was excerpted (with minor editing) from the Tug Hill Commission‘s How Winter is Changing in the Tug Hill Region (March 2025).
Learn more about the Tug Hill Plateau, Climate Change or Winter Sports in New York State.
Illustrations, from above: A stream on Tug Hill in winter with snow (courtesy Bridgeview Real Estate); Average seasonal snowfall totals for areas impacted by lake-effect snow in inches (National Weather Service – Buffalo); A topographic map of the Tug Hill region showing elevation (Tug Hill Commission); and annual average temperature in New York State, 1901-2022.
