On our recent podcast (yes, we have a podcast), we shared a list of “12 Things That Aren’t Happening With the A’s, Bally’s Corp. and Trop Site.”
We felt compelled to compile this list because of the confusing news coverage around this subject. By “confusing,” of course, we mean “completely wrong.”
We are here to help. The A’s hypothetical move to Las Vegas and the fantastic (the “remote from reality” kind) plan for Bally’s Corp. to build a resort on the Tropicana site are elements of what is unfolding as the biggest debacle in the history of Las Vegas. Gird.
We should say up front that the gems we’re about to share aren’t guesses or speculation. They’re conclusions based upon the facts as they exist today, along with myriad conversations with experts in the areas of sports, finance and the hotel-casino business.
Our conclusions are also informed by more than a decade of calling out bullshit about Las Vegas projects with no basis in reality, including All Net Resort & Arena (which duped politicians and the public for a decade, largely because local media was utterly useless), Alon, Bleutech Park, the Skyvue observation wheel, King David Hotel and many others.
Let’s get into it, already. If you’re more a listener than reader, here’s the segment from our podcast.
Here are “12 Things That Aren’t Happening With the A’s, Bally’s Corp. and Trop Site,” which you’d have known if you hadn’t skimmed the headline and first sentence of this story. Rude.
1. The A’s aren’t coming to Las Vegas while John Fisher owns the team.
There’s no evidence the A’s have financing in place for their portion of the ballpark construction. The A’s have confirmed this fact repeatedly, including in recent stories reporting financing is in place. The owner of the A’s, John Fisher, has presumably “pledged” up to $1 billion in funding, and letters are to be presented to the Las Vegas Stadium Authority that financing is all set. Pledges and letters aren’t funding. These are concepts of plans for funding. Are we saying the A’s ballpark won’t be built and the A’s won’t be coming to Las Vegas? Yes, pretty much, but we understand anything is possible. If the A’s are sold, Las Vegas remains a viable place for the team to play, contingent upon new, serious ownership and management.
Reminder: John Fisher is never, ever dumping a billion dollars into a ballpark. The media outlets breathlessly repeating this nonsense are complicit in the hoodwinkery. https://t.co/1NL6VwiCCI pic.twitter.com/vhGWGzhudw
— Vital Vegas (@VitalVegas) November 1, 2024
2. No one is buying a minority stake in the A’s.
The A’s have been looking for suckers for months, but there have been no takers. The team is looking for $500 million for a 25% stake in a team that is worth $1.2 billion. The math, as the kids say, isn’t mathing. No smart wealthy person or institution is handing over $500 million to be a minority owner with John Fisher involved. The money is locked in and the minority stake can’t be sold without the permission of Fisher. Nobody is investing at that inflated valuation of $2 billion. Of note: The A’s hired Galatiotio Sports Partners (back in April 2024) to raise $500 million, no takers. We understand there was a top secret pitch meeting held at Red Rock Resort recently where the A’s pitched the investment scheme to possibly investors. Crickets.
3. John Fisher isn’t selling stock to finance anything.
The latest round of breathless reports say Fisher (or his family or some combination thereof) will contribute a billion dollars to this project. This assertion is insane, with a capital WTF. The question has never been if Fisher has the wealth to invest in a ballpark, the question has always been if he’s willing to spend even a penny of his own money on such a project. The reality is he’s biding his time, waiting for an angel investor of some sort, and quietly feeling out offers of a sale of the team. If he cashed in $1 billion in Gap stock, he would have to pay $200 million to the IRS. This isn’t how rich people stay rich. They risk other people’s money (and taxpayer money whenever they can dupe politicians into believing their project will provide jobs and other economic stimulation in excess of the tax dollar contribution, something that’s rarely ever happened in history).
4. Nobody is lending $1 billion to John Fisher.
The big news in recent news stories was the A’s claiming the team will present a $300 million construction loan commitment letter from U.S. Bank and Goldman Sachs to the Las Vegas Stadium Authority on Dec. 5, 2024. That’s awesome, but even if that loan happens, there’s a huge funding gap. The fact is the A’s have to spend $100 million of somebody’s money to unlock up to $380 million in public funding from the state of Nevada. Why aren’t U.S. Bank and Goldman Sachs loaning a billion dollars? Because banks require reality-based collateral. A fabricated $2 billion valuation isn’t reality-based, so serious investment bank is going to take a risk on the longest of longshots. Fisher has floated a $2 billion valuation so he’s negotiation down from that number for a sale, not up from $1.2 billion, the actual value of the team.
5. Bally’s Corp. isn’t building a resort on the Tropicana site.
While the A’s saga could certainly be described as an “implosion,” the Tropicana is actually a victim of one. Implosion, that is. Bally’s Corp. has found the perfect partner in the A’s, because they’re completely unfettered by the truth or the real world. Bally’s Corp. is tapped out financially, as we have been saying for some time. Bally’s sold everything it had to sell, including all its land in other parts of the country. (A rumored sale of Bally’s international interactive operation, Gamesys, isn’t going to move any needles). Bally’s simply doesn’t have the resources to build anything on the Tropicana site, despite the whimsical announcements to the contrary. Bally’s Corp. had to be bailed out by Gaming and Leisure Properties to finance its casino in Chicago, but no such scenario is going to happen in Las Vegas. This, despite endless stories about how much confidence Bally’s Corp. and GLPI have that confidence is the new actually paying for things. Why is Bally’s continuing to perpetuate this fantasy? Optimism! Las Vegas was built on optimism (that, and short memories). Will there be a resort on the Trop site at some point? Yes. Could it be profitable if nine acres of the Trop site were devoted to a ballpark (that isn’t paying rent)? No. Bally’s and the A’s will be long gone by the time a serious developer is involved, which means the Trop site will be a parking lot for the foreseeable future. If GLPI foots the bill for paving, that is.
6. GLPI isn’t saving the day.
We get this question a lot. GLPI, owner of the Trop land, saved Bally’s Corp.’s ass in Chicago. Couldn’t that happen in Las Vegas? No. Nobody’s swooping in to save the day. That includes MGM Resorts. The casino company is positioned perfectly (with MGM Grand, New York-New York and Excalibur nearby) to take advantage of a ballpark when it materializes someday (if it ends up on the Trop site, it’s all up for grabs if there’s a sale of the team, although that public subsidy will be a big perk for a potential buyer), but MGM Resorts doesn’t build things. It operates casinos and hotels. There are no magical forces at work. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, a key culprit in perpetuating the A’s move myth, isn’t contributing anything to a ballpark. They’re funded by tax dollars. They need to focus on optics when this deal falls through, including facilitating getting an expansion team we can all get excited about.
7. Nobody is building a ballpark on The Strip for $1.5 billion.
There’s been so much talk about how a $1.5 billion MLB ballpark will be financed, it seems everyone has overlooked the fact there is no way this venue could be built for that amount, and the cost is rising with each passing day. The Sphere missed its projected cost by a billion dollars and it’s bleeding money! We’ve been told the parties involved with potentially building a ballpark are saying the cost is a “moving target.” The issue of the Fishers taking up the slack on a funding gap (see what we did there?) becomes even more laughable when you realize they would have to pony up $1.5 billion or more. Never. Happening. Ever.
8. A resort built on the Trop site with nine acres devoted to a ballpark will never be profitable.
We probably should’ve said “in no particular order” earlier, but we are very busy researching the average cost of lap dances at Las Vegas strip clubs, so we don’t have time to “edit” or “make sense of things.” Anyway, if the imaginary ballpark was part of the imaginary casino resort on the Trop site, the resort couldn’t make money. Why? Beyond the ballpark not paying rent, the hotel tower(s) would be limited in height due to FAA regulations, so additional room revenue wouldn’t be possible. They can’t build up. Also, the Tropicana curse isn’t going anywhere just because the Tropicana did. Yes, we made the Tropicana curse into a thing, which we felt guilty about, but there was a lot of evidence to support that designation, trust us.
9. Nobody’s building a ballpark on just nine acres.
It’s not enough space, plain and simple. Bally’s recently shared a rendering of its imagined resort, and almost immediately distanced itself from its own rendering. Why? Bally’s provided this statement: “The designs are initial massing diagrams intended to ensure that both our resort program and the A’s stadium program can be successfully accommodated on the site. We anticipate that the designs will evolve as we advance the project.” Anticipation and ensuring for the win!
10. Nobody’s drawing 33,000 fans a game.
Among the many fabricated numbers shared by the A’s and our local news outlets, there’s this beauty: The A’s ballpark will accommodate up to 33,000 fans. In its final season in Oakland, the A’s were drawing about 6,400 fans per game. Las Vegas is being duped, and the people who should be shouting this the loudest (elected officials, the LVCVA and media) are complicit in the scam. All the projected benefits of a ballpark have been inflated. “But the Raiders!” Football fans travel, baseball fans don’t. “But the Golden Knights!” Apples, meet oranges.
11. The ballpark isn’t ending up at Rio.
An MLB ballpark in Las Vegas might’ve happened if the A’s had taken Rio’s offer of using their 22-acre parking lot for $1, but that scenario is off the table. As we reported exclusively, the Rio site is going to be an NBA arena built by Oak View Group. Reminder: Just because other news outlets aren’t reporting something doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
And the final thing that isn’t happening with the A’s, Bally’s Corp. and the Tropicana site?
12. Las Vegas media outlets are never going to stop regurgitating bullshit.
Las Vegas appears to have no actual journalists, and that’s sad and scary. Nobody has really questioned what they’re being shoveled by the A’s or Bally’s or the LVCVA. The biggest offender has been the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the de facto publicity arm of the A’s and Bally’s and the LVCVA. There has been zero skepticism of the wildly unrealistic plans and projections and unrelenting farmyard manure. The A’s are a clown show and the Las Vegas Review-Journal is the clown car. Nobody’s asking hard questions, and when someone does, our “paper of record” simply ignores the answer and reprints the next day’s statement verbatim.
Las Vegas stadium board chairman Steve Hill says public does not need to see Fisher documents validating Fisher’s financial ability to build $1.5 billion stadium on Strip. “It’s confidential.” See our story leading LVSportsBiz. Only stadium bd members will see financial documents pic.twitter.com/pHZAGcNFJd
— LVSportsBiz.com (@LVSportsBiz) October 17, 2024
We are a pretty good writer, but even we couldn’t make this shit up.
If the A’s aren’t coming to Las Vegas, where are they going? We are not psychic, but they’re playing in Sacramento for three years, and there’s no reason to leave if the Seminoles foot the bill for a ballpark.
Other contenders are Utah, Philadelphia and, wait for it, Oakland. A serious owner and management group will sort it all out.
The fact is the A’s shenanigans have soured Las Vegas on getting an MLB team for the moment, so there’s going to be a refractory period after the current deal falls through and the dust settles. (See, it’s another implosion reference. Please keep up.)
We are witnessing a world-class debacle in a town with a glorious history of debacles. It’s old-school chain-yanking, bamboozling at its worst (and finest).
We aren’t rooting for the A’s and Bally’s fantasy to fail, but we will sleep better knowing at least one incredibly talented, fearless and modest writer in Las Vegas predicted this fiasco’s inevitable unraveling.
Not that everything has to be about us, probably.
